Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.616112 2.127158 2.817176 3.841433 5.367005 7.630366e+00 1.139582e+01
2025-01-19 0.974175 1.440770 2.175137 3.481662 5.907865 1.060297e+01 2.157105e+01
2025-01-26 0.689880 1.125323 1.908192 3.555174 7.367897 1.725545e+01 5.274325e+01
2025-02-02 0.527863 0.939943 1.777575 3.854333 9.927539 3.219957e+01 1.794336e+02
2025-02-09 0.408280 0.782880 1.630024 4.072813 13.089829 6.203098e+01 8.545305e+02
2025-02-16 0.314042 0.639060 1.441501 4.078550 16.181911 1.163085e+02 6.703696e+03
2025-02-23 0.239824 0.510755 1.227153 3.846232 18.390040 2.025068e+02 1.502418e+05
2025-03-02 0.182259 0.401227 1.010335 3.426154 19.082219 3.134885e+02 6.994092e+08
2025-03-09 0.153898 0.354511 0.953368 3.624557 25.590386 8.841985e+02 NaN
2025-03-16 0.129979 0.311032 0.885108 3.727574 33.121913 2.886558e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.113834 0.283496 0.857223 4.046780 47.547215 2.046664e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 0.099874 0.257542 0.822035 4.313987 67.327290 5.250599e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.084878 0.224289 0.744117 4.222469 82.723151 1.126967e+09 NaN
2025-04-13 0.070902 0.190191 0.646342 3.854456 88.036036 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.062660 0.172379 0.610270 3.968399 120.644491 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.057012 0.161523 0.600235 4.339641 194.387226 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.051640 0.149991 0.581141 4.617850 304.649505 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.046139 0.136424 0.544826 4.645340 421.993462 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.040619 0.121360 0.493399 4.388818 490.494387 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.035287 0.105806 0.432814 3.906903 470.571381 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.032674 0.099926 0.423016 4.150595 789.616764 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.030085 0.093485 0.406958 4.281103 1253.699858 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.028283 0.089684 0.404708 4.668390 2646.391765 NaN NaN